Brazilian vs Thai vs Indian white sugar: who can actually ship it in 2026?

The three origins side by side

The export figures are for HS 1701.99, white and refined sugar, except India’s, which the government reports for all sugar. Crop forecasts come from CONAB for Brazil (August 2026) and USDA for Thailand (April 2026) and India (October 2026, raw value).

India: mostly shut in 2026

India sells sugar abroad only when the government says it can, and for much of 2026 it said no. For the 2025/26 season it shared an export quota of 1.5 million tonnes among the mills, and in February added 0.5 million more. By the end of January the mills had shipped only about 0.2 million tonnes. In late August the government put the season’s exports at about 0.8 million tonnes. (USDA’s count is 3.3 million tonnes raw value, because it includes raw sugar imported, refined in India and re-exported.) On 13 May 2026 the trade ministry banned exports of raw, white and refined sugar until 30 September. Unless extended, sugar then goes back to “restricted”, which means it needs a quota. By 10 October no general export quota for 2026/27 had been announced; the only one was 5,841 tonnes for the EU tariff quota, set on 9 October.

The government is worried about supply at home. In August it allowed 1 million tonnes of raw sugar in duty-free and capped dealers’ stocks at 400 tonnes. USDA now expects the 2026/27 crop at 29.5 million tonnes raw value, down from its April forecast of 33.6 million.

If someone offers you Indian sugar, ask two things. First, under what permission does it ship? Outside the EU and US tariff quotas, re-exports of imported raw sugar and government-to-government deals, Indian sugar cannot legally be exported in 2026 without a government quota or permission, so ask which mill holds it and ask to see the order. Second, what does the lab say? India’s standard grades plantation white sugar against sealed reference samples, not in ICUMSA units; only its refined grades are set in ICUMSA colour. An “Indian ICUMSA 45” offer needs a lab specification behind it.

Thailand: a big exporter, mostly to its neighbours

Thailand exported about 3.1 million tonnes of white sugar in 2025, a little over half of all the sugar it shipped. Most of it went next door: Cambodia took 791,000 tonnes, the Philippines 437,000 and Laos 391,000. The Gulf took little (the UAE about 17,000 tonnes) and West Africa almost nothing, just 100 tonnes to Sierra Leone. Most of what it sells in Africa goes to the east, mainly Sudan, Tanzania and Djibouti, plus one South African cargo of about 16,000 tonnes.

Thailand ended its old sugar quota system in January 2018. Sugar exports still need a non-automatic licence from the Ministry of Commerce, under a 1988 rule, which Thailand tells the WTO is there to comply with the International Sugar Organization. USDA forecasts the 2026/27 sugar crop at 9.5 million tonnes, down 16%, and exports at 6.0 million tonnes, 3.2 million of it refined.

The cane board’s tables report two white grades, “refined” and “white”, with no ICUMSA figure for either. Ask for the specification sheet, as you would anywhere.

Brazil: most of its white sugar goes to Africa

Brazil exported 4.3 million tonnes of white sugar in 2025, worth 2.03 billion US dollars. That was only 12.7% of its sugar exports; the other 29.5 million tonnes was raw sugar for refineries. The ten biggest buyers of the white sugar were Mauritania, Senegal, Togo, Guinea, Angola, South Africa, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Yemen. The Gulf took very little: Oman 17,226 tonnes, the UAE 2,084.

Most of it loaded at Santos (2.7 million tonnes) and Paranaguá (0.9 million), with smaller lots from the North-East ports of Recife, Suape and Maceió. Loadings were heaviest in the second half of the year, about 60% of the total. October 2025 was the busiest month, April and May the quietest.

The 2026/27 crop is forecast at 42.9 million tonnes, down 2.9%, because more cane is going into ethanol, and CONAB reports that exports from April to July 2026 were 13.1% lower than a year earlier. Brazil still dominates: USDA’s Brazil report puts it at 59% of world sugar exports in 2025, against 10% for Thailand and 7% for India.

Distance decides more than people think

Sailing time costs money and adds risk. These are approximate port-to-port distances, with days at 12 knots, before port time and weather.

The trade follows the map. Brazil is close to West Africa and far from the Gulf, which helps explain why so little Brazilian white sugar goes to Dubai. A Brazilian cargo to Jebel Ali can still work, but the freight has to be in the price, and you should be able to see it there.

Which origin fits your market

• West Africa: Brazil, on volume, distance and track record. Thailand and India barely ship there.
• The Gulf: geography favours India when it is open and Thailand when it is not. Compare a Brazilian offer on landed cost, not on the FOB figure.
• East Africa and the Horn: India and Thailand both ship there. Brazil is a longer haul.

Whatever the origin, ask the seller which country and which port the sugar loads at. A seller who can’t name the load port isn’t ready to sell you sugar. Then verify the supplier before money moves, and check your own country’s duty in the import rules by country.